Predictions for 2007

It’s customary every year for people to write predictions for the coming year.

I’m going to be no exception.

Below in no particular order of importance - are my predictions for the internet world in general, with a specific emphasis on the SEO/SEM industry:

1. Vista uptake with be slower than predicted

Microsoft thinks Vista will see rapid acceptance, especially within business.

But Microsoft has lost a lot of trust - frequent security problems plus software compatibility issues means markets will be much more reserved on the uptake.

The bottom line is that business just isn’t attracted to Vista - not in the numbers Microsoft want.

Expect a few security horror stories in Q1 to help keep the brakes on this.

2. Google will continue search dominance - but with lower confidence

Google will continue to dominate search, not least because there is no serious rival.

Yahoo! is more focused on being a content portal, where it can apply advertising - and Microsoft is a software platform company not really interested in search as anything but a by-product.

However, privacy issues are a rising concern again, and whether Google does anything untoward or not, the huge amount of potentially personally identifiable information on user behaviour will create bigger jitters in 2007.

3. No major acquisitions among ISPs

It’s been suggested that Microsoft should acquire Yahoo! - and there are compelling business reasons for doing so.

But with Vista, Office 2007, Xbox 360, Zune, and projects with linux distros in development and release for 2007, Microsoft simply hasn’t the time to pay serious attention to such an acquisition, let alone the headaches involved in merging their assets.

Overall, with most ISP’s having begun well established, acquisitions of the major players just isn’t financially viable without third-party equity investors, especially when partnership deals can probably deliver better ROI.

Web 2.0 companies are another matter, though.

4. Amazon will do something surprising

Amazon is the wildcard among ISP’s.

They’ve focused on grabbing mindshare among internet users, rather than deliver profits to investors.

They’ve looked to implement a search engine, and they’ve been focusing on user-generated content (UGC), contextual advertising and blogs for authors. They keep looking for openings to leverage their presence in general.

This open-mindedness makes Amazon unpredictable, and there’s every possibility that they’ll do something surprising - whether acquiring a significant Web 2.0 property, make real in-roads on marketshare outside of book sales, or else release a new service that grabs user attention.

Personal tip is that we’ll be looking at IPTV and video streaming.

5. IPTV goes mainstream

IPTV came to 2006 as an emergent technology, and is fast gaining momentum.

The biggest problem for general delivery is copyright - or, more to the point, producers getting returns on content, which has traditionally been provided by advertising.

However, Google, Yahoo, and MSN are all positioning not simply to help deliver IPTV, but also the advertising streams necessary to support it.

Watch for bigger developments here as IPTV builds momentum into general consumer markets.

6. VoIP will fail to make inroads

Anyone who’s used VoIP is probably familiar with the snap, crackle, and pop audio quality on VoIP.

And until quality issues are addressed, business just won’t take up VoIP for mainstream purposes.

Large corporations with bean counters may try to jump in on cost benefits alone, but poor communication issues are likely to keep progress limited on service outlay.

7. HDTV - still too immature

HDTV has been hyped to take markets by storm in 2005, 2006, and 2007.

My opinion is that HDTV will only take off as broadband speeds increse and IPTV becomes an increasingly common consumer commodity.

In the meantime, high set prices and additional costs for HDTV broadcasts are going to keep this technology’s market reach limited through 2007.

8. Microsoft will beat Google for office apps

There’s been a general shift away from local storage of data on the home PC to remote storage on servers.

Microsoft and Google have both been pushing in this direction: Microsoft with remote storage and internet services in Office 2007, and Google will online text and spreadsheets software.

There’s been talk for some time that Google will build an operating system to rival Microsoft directly - but they won’t. Reason being that Google is trying to treat the internet as an operating system - while Microsoft are treating it as an extended operating system.

Trouble is, general consumers and business users are in majority chained to Windows - there will be no mass move of consumers to Google remote storage products.

And Microsoft already has such a huge presence in IT services that few large companies are going to risk mass migration of services from Microsoft’s business expertise to Google’s funboy approach.

9. Consolidation of SEO companies

As a SEO I can see the great potential for smaller SEO companies to become acquired, or merge.

The sector is maturing considerably, and with the return of mainstream business and investment via Web 2.0 will come inevitable interest in companies delivering specialist internet marketing services.

Some will be taken in-house by agencies, but the most successful acquisitions will be by SEO’s - who in better knowing their markets and strengths, can build bigger and better companies for search marketing services.

The surprise is that so many haven’t been acquired already.

10. Mobile will continue to mature

One day we’ll all be carrying mobile devices, as powerful as home PC’s, and delivering all kinds of services as standalone as well as integrated with home media. But not yet.

We’ve seen mobile technology continue to develop, but we’ve still not seen mobile technology be able to bring the home PC and internet experience as a mainstream mobile activity for general consumers.

However, we’ll continue to see technological developments push on through 2007, especially focused on wireless connectivity for large areas and localised advertising solutions targeted at mobile users.

11. MySpace will not die

Shocking, I know - there’s plenty of chatter that MySpace has had it’s day - and perhaps it’s fair to say that MySpace has peaked in a number of ways.

However, MySpace was built and continues to be developed by independent musicians, who bring along their fan bases to MySpace.

That means that despite the marketing abuses aimed at MySpace, there’s still significant room for it to continue to expand as a major social site.

12. Proliferation of specialist social media sites

We’ve already seen a number of social media sites spring up. And this will continue, though with a bigger emphasis on market niches than generic markets.

Digg was supposed to be the replacement for Slashdot, but not only is Slashdot still running successfully, Digg is already at imploding point.

Digg-like sites set in clear niche topic areas are going to proliferate in 2007 before evolutionary pressures start weeding out the strong from the weak.